Lone Star Gridiron

Breaking down high school football playoff scenarios In Waco Area

When it gets to Week 10 of the high school football season, there’s always one question that comes up above all others — who’s going to be in the playoffs?

Well, in some cases, it’s real simple. Take a quick look at the standings and everything makes since. In others, you can look at the standings long enough that everything seems possible — except finding an answer.

In those districts, the point differential makes all the difference, and sometimes — if that doesn’t decide it — a quick flip of a coin will determine whether a team goes to the postseason or home.

In any case, below is a list of potential playoff scenarios that could play out based on Friday night’s results (district records of teams still in playoff contention in parentheses).

District 16-4A: Midway (6-0) can finish an undefeated run through district play with a road win over Waxahachie (5-1) on Friday. Waxahachie and Ennis (5-1) have also secured playoff spots. The fourth and final spot has yet to be decided, but Waco High has the inside track.

If Midlothian (2-4) beats Waco High and Corsicana (2-4) beats Cleburne, Waco High (3-3), Corsicana and Midlothian will end up in a three-way tie.

This district uses point differential with an 18-point cap to break three-way ties, and Midlothian would need to meet the cap against Waco High on Friday to throw the race to a coin flip. A Waco High win or loss by less than 18 gives the Lions the fourth spot and Division I (big school) berth along with Midway. Ennis and Waxahachie would be the Division II (small school) teams.

District 12-5A: A Copperas Cove (5-1) win over 1-8 Harker Heights gives the Bulldawgs the outright district championship. Cove will be the No. 1 small-school team.

After that it gets hairy.

There’s the potential for a four-way tie for second between Temple (4-2), Ellison (4-2), A&M Consolidated (3-3) and Shoemaker (3-3). Even more fun, they all play each other this week — four teams competing for three playoff spots.

Ellison is in with a win over A&M Consolidated, out with a loss. A&M Consolidated is in with a win or Shoemaker loss to Temple. Shoemaker is in with a win over Temple or Ellison loss to A&M Consolidated. Temple is in with a win over Shoemaker, an A&M Consolidated win over Ellison or Ellison win by seven or fewer points.

District 7-3A: China Spring (4-0) has clinched a playoff spot and would finish an undefeated season with a win over Gatesville (2-2). Glen Rose (3-1) needs a win over Hillsboro to secure second place.

West needs a win over 0-9 Whitney or a Gatesville loss to China Spring. Gatesville needs to upset China Spring and get a Whitney upset over West (2-2). Should Gatesville get both, it would go Division I, with China Spring and Glen Rose as Division II participants. Any other scenario puts China Spring in Division I and Glen Rose and West in Division II.

District 19-3A: La Vega (4-0) needs a win over Lorena (2-2) on Friday to finish undefeated in district play. Mexia (3-1) is in second and has clinched a playoff spot.

The Blackcats will hold onto second place if they beat Groesbeck (2-2). If they lose to the Goats and Lorena falls to La Vega, Groesbeck would be second and Mexia third. La Vega would be big school, Groesbeck and Mexia small.

If Groesbeck falls to Mexia, La Vega beats Lorena and Robinson (1-3) beats Connally, it’s a three-way tie for third. Robinson is the beneficiary here, with a point-differential edge on Groesbeck and Lorena. But if Lorena, Groesbeck and Robinson all lose, Lorena gets in based on its head-to-head win over Groesbeck.

If Lorena beats La Vega and Groesbeck beats Mexia, it becomes a three-way tie for second and goes to a point differential with a 14 cap. In that case, if Mexia loses by less than 13 points, it stays second. If Groesbeck wins and covers the 13 points, it takes second and the top Division II spot, while Mexia is the second small school.

District 20-3A: Palestine Westwood (4-0) and Crockett (3-1) have locked down the No. 1 and 2 spots, respectively, and will be the Division II teams. The winner of Friday’s game between Athens (2-2) and Brownsboro (1-3) will be the Division I representative.

District 24-3A: Navasota (5-0) has clinched a share of the district title and the Division I spot. A Cameron (4-1) win over Caldwell (3-2) would put the Yoemen in second and give them the No. 1 spot in Division II.

If Caldwell bumps off Cameron and Rockdale (3-2) beats Taylor, it’s a three-way tie for second. Caldwell would need to beat Cameron by 14 or more to get in. Anything less, and it’s Cameron and Rockdale, with the Tigers as the No. 2 small school.

District 16-2A: Troy (6-0) and McGregor (5-1) face off Friday with the district title on the line. Regardless of which team wins, Troy will be the big school with McGregor as the top small school.

Crawford (4-2) needs to beat Moody to claim the other Division II spot, while Hamilton (4-2) needs to beat Hico and have Moody upset Crawford.

District 20-2A: Franklin (4-0), which has clinched a playoff berth as one of the small-school teams, faces a Teague (3-1) team that will be the district’s big school.

Hearne (2-2) travels to Rosebud-Lott (2-2), with the winner claiming the final Division II berth.

District 21-1A: Everything’s set here. Itasca (5-0) is the district champion and top Division II school. Axtell (4-1) will be the Division I team and faces Dawson (4-1), the No. 2 small school, for second place in the district.

District 22-1A: Mart (4-0) is the district champion, while Bremond (3-1) is second.

Lovelady (2-2) travels to face Normangee (2-2), with the winner taking the final playoff spot. If Lovelady wins, it’s the big school, while Mart and Bremond go small. If Normangee wins, it’s the No. 2 small school behind Bremond, and Mart goes Division I.

District 25-1A: Goldthwaite (4-0) will be the Division I team and faces Meridian (3-1), with the winner claiming the district title. If Meridian loses and Bosqueville and Chilton both win, there will be a three-way tie for second between those schools. The point differential is a wash, so it would go to a coin flip, with the “odd man” taking second place. It would then go to the head-to-head matchup between the two remaining teams to determine third.

The two schools that come out of the coin flip will go Division II.

TAPPS Div. 3, Dist. 3: Reicher (2-0) is the district champion.

TAPPS Div. 3, Dist. 3: Texas Christian Academy (0-4) has been eliminated from playoff contention. Hallettsville Sacred Heart (4-0) is the district champion.

Six-man Div. 1, Dist. 13: Abbott (5-0) is the district champion. Milford (4-1) plays at Kopperl (3-2) for the other playoff berth.

Six-man Div. 1, Dist. 14: Trinidad (4-0) is the district champion. Penelope (3-1) hosts Oakwood (3-1) for the other playoff berth.

Six-man Div. 2, Dist. 14: Star (3-0) will host Sidney (3-0) for the district championship. Both teams are in the playoffs.

Six-man Div. 2, Dist. 15: Morgan (2-1) travels to Walnut Springs (3-0), hoping to make it a three-way tie for the district title between those two and Laird Hill Leveretts Chapel (3-1). A Walnut Springs win sends it and Leveretts Chapel to the playoffs.

Six-man TAPPS Div. 2, Dist. 2: Parkview Christian has been eliminated. Duncanville ChristWay (3-0) is the district champion

By Jason Orts
Waco Tribune-Herald staff writer

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